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We are now nine days out from the May 14 primary, with early voting continuing this week until Saturday. And as I write this, I cannot tell you how the Republican primary for governor will go.

As you all well know, I don’t do predictions. All I can do is tell you what the political weather is like at this moment. If the election were held at this very moment, it sure looks like based on polling and money expended that Attorney General Patrick Morrisey is the favorite, with former state lawmaker Moore Capito and Huntington ÀÏ˾»úÖ±²¥man Chris Miller duking it out for the role of spoiler.

The latest WV MetroNews West Virginia Poll seems to bear this out, though I have several quibbles with the poll. It has Morrisey, once again, in the low-30s. Specifically, it has Morrisey at 32%, with Miller at 25% and Capito at 24%. Secretary of State Mac Warner is in far fourth at 10%, with 3% preferring someone else and 6% undecided.

My big issue with this poll, conducted by noted pollster Rex Repass at Research America, is the length of time it was conducted. The poll included 407 registered Republicans and independents who request GOP ballots, with the poll taking place between April 24 through May 1. I’m not sure how you can get an accurate poll over an eight-day period. A lot can happen in politics in an eight-day period.

However, I do think the basic snapshot is correct. Morrisey is the man to beat, though it is still astonishing to me that his support has remained so static. When you average all of the polling, independent and internal polling from pro-Morrisey groups, Morrisey averages about 33% support. It means that while Morrisey has a decent-sized loyal base of supporters, he hasn’t really gained new support.

In a race that is basically a four-person race (and in reality a three-person race), I certainly never expected to see Morrisey clear 50% support. But I would have expected Morrisey to rise to the high-30s at least, especially given the millions of dollars that have been spent by Morrisey and on behalf of Morrisey.

The Morrisey campaign has spent more than $3 million election year-to-date, according to his most recent campaign finance report. That is not counting the more than $6 million spent on behalf of Morrisey and against Morrisey’s opponents since the beginning of the year by Black Bear PAC/Club for Growth and the $646,598 spent by Americans for Prosperity. That’s nearly $10 million spent.

That spending may not be bringing any new voters to Morrisey, but it could well be depressing votes for Capito and Miller, especially with all the negative TV and radio ads and mailers. Morrisey doesn’t have to be faster than the bear, he just has to be faster than the next slowest person.

Then again, an internal poll from the Coalition for West Virginia’s Future, a pro-Capito group, has Capito in the lead with 33%, Morrisey with 28%, Warner at 16% and Miller with 15%. I’m not sure I can buy Miller being that low, given the money he is spending and the number of broadcast ads out there, even in the Washington, D.C., market, which is very expensive.

I’m hoping we will see a new poll from Black Bear PAC. While a pro-Morrisey group, it has conducted at least three polls since last year that allows for a contrast-and-compare. Then again, if Morrisey isn’t dominating in its polling, I’d be surprised if they release such a poll.

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I don’t know who is advising Huntington Mayor Steve Williams, the lone Democratic candidate for governor, but he’s getting poor advice.

Last week, Williams launched a petition drive to pressure the West Virginia Legislature and Gov. Jim Justice to put on the special session call (likely to happen in June now) a resolution to put a constitutional amendment on the November ballot regarding “reproductive rights.”

I get it. Several states are doing ballot initiatives regarding reproductive freedom and access to abortion. The pro-life/anti-abortion crowd won a victory with the elimination of Rowe v. Wade, returning the issue of abortion to the states. They didn’t expect, however, that while the topic of abortion makes many uneasy, at the end of the day when they have the choice, the public in many states have leaned toward at least having some level of choice.

But I’d point out a few things. First, voters have already approved a constitutional amendment adding language to the state Constitution that “Nothing in this Constitution secures or protects a right to abortion or requires the funding of abortion.” That amendment narrowly passed in 2018 and with low voter turnout during a midterm election, but it passed regardless.

Second, Republicans continued to pick up seats in the Legislature after that 2022 near-total ban on abortion. Again, they didn’t lose seats. They gained seats. Expect a high voter turnout in November with former President Donald Trump at the top of the ticket. With Republicans growing their voter registration (40.4% as of April) and a certain percentage of conservative independent voters and even conservative Democrats still, I just don’t see reproductive rights being the rallying cry in West Virginia that Williams (or his advisers) thinks that it is.

If I were advising Williams, I’d say keep your head down and raise money. You’re the Democratic nominee by virtue of having no competitor. I wouldn’t be drawing attention to myself until after the primary and hitting up as many people as I can for money. Because if Morrisey is the primary winner, Williams is going to need every penny.